The general election begins one, not two, months from now.
For early-bird mail-in voters, balloting starts Oct. 6, almost a full month before the polls close and the nation holds its breath as the results from old and new battleground states – Ohio and Michigan; Colorado and Virginia – come in.
California, by most accounts, is in the bank for Obama-Biden. No suspense there. The battle is far away.
In North County, however, the most competitive – and, therefore, compelling – race could very well be in the 50th Congressional District, Randall Harold Cunningham's old stomping ground.
Naturally, conventional wisdom – that is, punditry based on history – suggests that Rep. Brian Bilbray, R-Carlsbad, will be re-elected just as Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, appears to be a shoo-in in the 49th District.
Think of it as a guaranteed return on investment.
What good are gerrymandered congressional districts if they don't ensure safe seats for Republicans or Democrats?
Why would savvy politicians of both parties go to the trouble of cutting college students and liberal neighborhoods out of the 50th if the district wasn't going to elect Republicans?
For many years, the makeup of San Diego County's five-member congressional delegation has reflected the conservative tilt in the county: Three Republicans, two Democrats. In elections past, you could take that GOP-favorable ratio to Las Vegas.
But the demographics are slowly changing in the affluent well-educated, environmentally conscious southern reaches of North County. The Republicans remain the rock-ribbed majority in the 49th as well as the 52nd, but their ownership of the 50th is slipping.
Bilbray can't win the old-fashioned way – by just showing up in a dark suit and talking tough about immigration or taxes.
No, after one term representing the 50th, the veteran pol is going to have to earn it by doing what needs to be done if he wants to be re-elected with a safe margin.
He must get off his high horse and bloody his cheeky young challenger.
Before or after McCain gives his all-important speech tonight, a negative, but catchy, advertisement will air on KGTV (ABC), KFMB (CBS), KNSD (NBC) and KSWB (Fox).
“This (ad) is the beginning of a major major media buy,” promises Alec Evans, campaign manager for Nick Leibham, the Democratic challenger who's reportedly raised roughly $700,000 to defeat Bilbray.
As a sarcastic homage to the widely reviled, but effective, anti-Obama celebrity ads, Leibham's TV hit piece links Bilbray to none other than Paris Hilton.
Yes, images of the pouty heiress, dressed in slinky evening gown as well as revealing bikini, are back in politics.
“What do Paris Hilton and Brian Bilbray have in common?” a feminine Voice of Doom intones in the ad, a copy of which I received yesterday.
“Well,” the Voice of Doom continues, “they both do nothing. Bilbray, nothing to fix our economy. Nothing to solve our energy crisis. Nothing to end the massive federal deficit or wasteful Washington spending. The choice for Congress? Nothing – or change.”
Cut to flattering footage of the 34-year-old Democratic candidate: “Nick Leibham – new, responsible leadership for a change.”
If I were advising the Leibham campaign, I'd be mildly worried about burning Paris.
Lounging by the pool, the sulky blonde could say something like this in a YouTube response:
“Hey, young Rancho Santa Fe dude, who are you to hook me up with a wrinkled old surfer guy in a silly Hawaiian shirt? I didn't mind sharing the flashbulbs with Britney and Obama, a political supermodel who's pretty cool in an Armani kind of way. But with this ad you've dumped on my celebrity brand. I don't do sketchy local politics, understand? Nowhere man, you'll be hearing from my daddy's lawyers.”
Fortunately for Leibham, Hilton is probably too busy doing nothing to bother.
The point isn't the muddled message of the ad.
Bilbray – it's a long stretch to cast him as a hot young celebrity – has a legislative and lobbying record that's really something, not nothing. Liberals may not like the substance, but it's there, ripe for the picking over.
No, what's compelling is that Leibham has the war chest and the daring to double-down on a negative ad tonight (of all nights). He's crashing right into the GOP's party and hitting Bilbray when voters are paying the most attention.
That's guts.
In the past few months, Leibham has performed some goofy capers to get media attention: pumping cheap gas at service stations, and sending a chicken mascot to serve Bilbray with a face-to-face debate challenge.
But at the very least, his campaign has proven it's game.
On Sept. 20, Al Gore will be in Rancho Santa Fe to help raise funds and push the local candidate's environmental message.
As political capital goes, that's not small change. Can Bilbray match that star power?
If Bilbray doesn't camp out in his district and run from now until Election Day as if he's losing by four points, San Diego County could wake up on the morning of the first Wednesday of November with a Democratic majority in its congressional delegation.
While the nation looks to Ohio and Virginia, San Diegans also will be checking the 50th to see which party took the battleground.
Logan Jenkins: (760) 737-7555; logan.jenkins@uniontrib.com.
