The political gods would seem to be smiling on Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
The Republican governor forged a bipartisan deal with the Legislature to move ahead on badly needed public works projects. An unexpected tax windfall allowed him to shrink the chronic budget deficit and boost education spending.
And the two Democrats who want to take his job – state Treasurer Phil Angelides and state Controller Steve Westly – are spending millions of dollars to poison voters' attitudes about each other.
“It's springtime for Arnold,” said Jack Pitney, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College. “For Schwarzenegger, 2005 and early 2006 were one long banana peel. But the slide has stopped, and he's finally getting some good news. And not only that, but the warfare between Angelides and Westly can only work in his favor.”
Schwarzenegger may have had a run of good fortune since the politically disastrous November 2005 special election, but he doesn't seem to have much to show for it in terms of his standing with voters.
A new statewide public-opinion poll released last week showed that only 41 percent of California voters approve of the job the governor is doing, down a tad from 43 percent in January.
“Voters just don't seem to be giving him very much credit right now,” said Mark Baldassare, survey director of the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California, which conducted the poll. “Whether this is some holdover bad feelings from the special election or just the sense that the governor just happens to be in the right place at the right time, it's surprising that he isn't getting more credit.”
The news isn't much better for the Democrats.
After losing his lead to Westly last month, Angelides edged back ahead, 35 percent to 32 percent, among Democrats likely to vote in the June 6 primary election, according to the poll.
That means that less than two weeks before Election Day, a full third of the likely Democratic primary voters haven't made up their minds. The poll also suggests that many Democrats who stated a preference could easily change their minds. Three in five likely Democratic voters said they didn't know enough about either candidate to have an opinion about them.
The unfocused impressions of both candidates means the eventual nominee will have his work cut out for him.
“One of the challenges for voters in this Democratic primary is to learn something about the candidates,” Baldassare said. “The candidates spend a lot of time talking about the other candidate's negative attributes and less time talking about what the candidate himself stands for. As a result, people could end this election remembering a lot of negatives things about whoever wins.”
The Democratic campaigns are offering voters a smorgasbord of derogatory information about Angelides and Westly.
Voters exposed only to TV commercials could reasonably conclude that both candidates would raise taxes, plunder the environment and cozy up to oil companies. They're even running attack ads accusing each other of running attack ads first.
“They've got to start giving people a reason to vote for them,” said Democratic strategist Bill Carrick, who is not involved with the governor's race. “If it's all about 'this other guy's a bum,' I don't think that's going to be enough. Because they're so unknown, it's even more imperative.”
The barrage of accusations notwithstanding, the differences between Angelides and Westly are more of emphasis than of substance.
Perhaps the greatest difference is over taxes, but even there it isn't a stark contrast.
Angelides proposes to generate about $5 billion to fund schools, roll back college tuition and pay down the deficit by raising taxes on people making more than $500,000 a year and closing “corporate tax loopholes,” which are mostly unspecified.
Schwarzenegger forswears any new taxes, unless possibly in the aftermath of a terrorist attack or the most calamitous natural disaster.
Westly says he would raise taxes “only as a last resort” after implementing programs to improve tax collections and make government more efficient.
The tax issue could cut both ways for both Democrats.
For Angelides, making a tax increase a central theme of his campaign could buttress the image he seeks to project of a candidate with the courage of his convictions. It could also play into the Republicans' portrayal of Democrats as reckless spendthrifts.
Westly's more nuanced approach could bolster his theme that he's both innovative and cautious with the taxpayers' dollars, or reinforce criticism that he has little of substance to say.
Angelides is undeterred by the contention that, given the two-thirds vote of the Legislature that's required to raise taxes, his proposal is dead on arrival.
“It's a nonstarter,” said Westly campaign press secretary Nick Velasquez.
Angelides, at a campaign event in Santa Monica last week, said he would lead an initiative drive if the Legislature doesn't pass his tax plan.
“I'm not going to run up the white flag of surrender before I even take office,” the treasurer said. “I'm tired of Democrats and progressives who measure their progress by how little they retreat.”
As for Westly's alternative, Velasquez said the controller was offering a broad approach toward closing the budget gap, combined with proposals about how to raise revenues. But he said Westly would wait until he was elected governor and could consult with the experts at the state Department of Finance before providing a more precise proposal.
As for Schwarzenegger, he was chastened by the overwhelming voter rejection in November of his Proposition 76, which sought to correct the built-in imbalance between state spending and revenue.
He no longer rails against the “spending addicts” in the Democrat-controlled Legislature, and his strategy for closing the deficit, for now, seems to rely on the surge in revenue from a once-hot economy that now seems a bit shaky.
The Republican incumbent has alienated conservatives in his party in a variety of ways – taking liberal stands on social issues, appointing Democrats to key positions in his administration and judgeships, and abandoning his hard line on state spending. But he insists upon holding the line on taxes.
Thus, the tax issue would seem made to order for a Schwarzenegger re-election campaign.
“Whatever problems Schwarzenegger has with the base, he can use the tax issue to bring them home,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll.
Angelides proposed raising taxes on rich people and corporations more than a year ago, at a time when the state's finances seemed more perilous than they are after the recent tax windfall.
“Whatever mileage Angelides hoped to get out of his truthful stance on taxes, that's been affected by the reality that we really don't need to raise taxes,” said political analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe at the University of Southern California.
Angelides' bravado notwithstanding, DiCamillo predicted that if the treasurer wins the nomination, he'll quickly backpedal from his call for tax increases.
“I think it's a tough message,” DiCamillo said. “If he gets through the primary, he'll have to back off and minimize the damage. That's not going to be easy. I don't think the Schwarzenegger campaign is going to be easy.”
Democrats, accustomed to being beat up by Republicans over taxes no matter what they propose, scoff at the notion that the issue is any more damaging than usual.
“The nature of Republican politics is such that Arnold is going to run the same campaign against either one of them,” said Democratic media consultant Roy Behr, who is not working in the campaign for governor. “Whether the campaign is against Westly or Angelides or a write-in candidate who's never talked about tax increases, Arnold is going to attack him for supporting tax increases. That's just what Republicans do.”
Taxes could also be a tougher sell at a time of public anxiety and mistrust of government.
Broad economic indicators may be generally favorable, but rising gasoline prices, a volatile stock market, a slowing housing market and inflation worries have people on edge.
According to the Public Policy Institute poll, 57 percent of Californians think the state is headed in the wrong direction, and 52 percent say they expect their financial well-being to worsen in the coming year. Only 43 percent felt that way in March.
“The electorate is very restless right now,” Republican strategist Kenneth Khachigian said. “As good as the economy is, you're looking at an electorate that's not happy.”
Staff writer Bill Ainsworth contributed to this report.
John Marelius: john.marelius@uniontrib.com
