National pundits brought own agendas to 50th
A familiar gripe of communities that find themselves in the eye of a national media storm is how much the out-of-towners get wrong. This gripe usually applies to lazy journos who rely on stereotypes rather than fresh reporting. In the 50th Congressional District race, we saw the political pundit version of this. The Bilbray-Busby race frequently was framed based on the writer's core beliefs, not what was happening here. Some of the worst examples:
Before the vote, a pro-immigration Wall Street Journal scribe suggested Brian Bilbray's biggest obstacle was winning support from Republicans angry over Washington's free spending and depicting concerns about illegal immigration as a sideshow meant to distract voters – not a real issue in the 50th.
After the vote, two of the top writers at the biggest Angry Left Web sites – dailykos.com and myDD.com – insisted that Francine Busby lost because she wasn't enough of a firebrand liberal. Yeah, that will work in a district that's 30 percent Democrat.
Keep this in mind the next time you see some local griping that outside coverage has offered no insight into his hometown, just cliches. There's a good chance he's right.
Francine flopped
Partisan Dems who trumpet the fact that Busby did much better than in her 2004 congressional bid seem to intentionally ignore that she was then running against the pre-scandal “Duke” Cunningham, a war hero and veteran congressman known for bringing home the bacon. The Kerry and Gore showings in the last two presidential elections are the barometer of support that a viable Democratic candidate can expect in the 50th, and Busby barely did better against a weak Republican candidate. (Yes, Bilbray is a weak candidate, given his smearable history as a lobbyist and his unpopularity with social conservatives.)
Prediction: For her November rematch with Bilbray, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will give Busby a tiny fraction of the $2 million or so she got for this race. It's hard to fathom how she can win, and under the bluster, the DCCC knows it.
Phil's Achilles' heel
In the aftermath of Phil Angelides' defeat of Steve Westly, there was a bit of a backlash against the conventional wisdom that Westly would have been a tougher opponent for the governor. Leading the way was The Sacramento Bee's Dan Weintraub. The San Diego State grad thinks Angelides is tougher than Westly and that his “negatives are probably about as high as they are going to go. Republicans already loathe him. And Democrats will learn to love him. That leaves the independents. And they are up for grabs.”
But Angelides has a huge vulnerability that didn't come up against Westly: He has supported both driver's licenses and in-state tuition for illegal immigrants. The attack ads write themselves.
Lots of political pros think the last straw for voters who recalled Gray Davis in 2003 was his decision to support state Sen. Gil Cedillo's annual driver's license crusade. You can bet Arnold hasn't forgotten this.
Lucky Filner
Maybe Juan Vargas never had a chance to beat incumbent Rep. Bob Filner for the Dem nomination in the 51st Congressional District, but he'd probably have come closer if he'd focused more on Filner's real weakness, not his imaginary one.
It is pathetic/outrageous/inexcusable that Filner has given his wife more than $500,000 in donated funds since 1995 (allegedly because she raised the money). Any donor aware of this arrangement knows that giving to Filner is akin to a kickback, because his wife gets a cut to help balance the family checkbook.
But I saw more Vargas ads down the campaign stretch that focused on the ludicrous charge that Filner was pro-pedophile. How stupid does Vargas think people in his district are?
Footnote: The worst Vargas ad said something like Filner had missed a vote on a bill that would define sexual relationships between adults and children as improper. Uh, I wasn't aware that deciding such relations were improper was up to Congress.
