The battle for the 78th Assembly District enters the last weekend of Campaign '06 at full boil, with Republican incumbent Shirley Horton and Democratic challenger Maxine Sherard waging million-dollar campaigns built around a flurry of nasty political mail.
Neither candidate seems suited to the rough side of politics – both are genial and reserved – but you wouldn't know it by the tone of their fliers, which have been landing daily in mailboxes for weeks.
The 78th hugs the eastern fringes of San Diego and Chula Vista, stretching from north of San Diego State University south to Spring Valley, Lemon Grove, eastern communities of San Diego and Chula Vista, and Bonita.
Horton's strategy: To frame Sherard as a left-wing kook, while casting herself as a centrist who's independent from the Assembly's conservative Republican minority.
One Horton mailer calls Sherard a “liberal extremist” – soft on drugs and illegal immigration, itching to raise taxes and outlaw SUVs. Horton's Web site links to tape recordings of Sherard's past comments on these issues, and a mailer features a grainy picture of Sherard that looks like an FBI surveillance photo.
Past 78th District
elections
2004
Shirley Horton:
48.9 percent.
Patty Davis:
47.7 percent.
2002
Horton:
49.3 percent.
Vince Hall:
47.6 percent.
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Sherard's strategy: To paint Horton as a reliable conservative Republican vote, while framing herself as a champion of Democratic causes – “working families,” education spending and the environment.
Sherard mailers suggest Horton is on the take, featuring a cartoon drawing of a blond woman peeking out from a back pocket stuffed with hundred-dollar bills.
In addition to the mail, Sherard has a TV ad featuring an elderly actress accusing Horton of voting wrong on prescription drugs, and several TV ads are backing Horton.
On Tuesday at San Diego City College, Sherard blasted Horton's education record, including votes to raise fees at the University of California, the California State University and community colleges.
“I am running because the young people of California deserve a chance and a future,” said Sherard, a retired math professor. “Unfortunately, my opponent has voted again and again against their hopes and against their future. How cruel is that?”
A Sherard “report card” gives Horton failing grades.
A Horton mailer accuses Sherard of lying about Horton's education record. Without citing bill numbers, it says Horton, among other things, voted to increase per-student funding and co-sponsored “Jessica's Law” to keep sex offenders away from schools.
In an interview, Horton defended votes for budgets that raised tuition, arguing the state was losing $1.3 billion a month when both parties were at budget impasse. She said this year's Legislature, through bipartisan cooperation, has turned education around.
“Test scores are higher than they've ever been, our students are progressing. Things are looking up,” Horton said.
Sherard also hits Horton on health care. In a news release yesterday, Sherard's Sacramento political team said Horton took more than $200,000 from pharmaceutical companies and voted against a bill, signed into law by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, to lower drug costs.
Horton's mail paints a different picture, claiming, “Shirley Horton, Working to Make Prescription Drugs More Affordable.” That piece says, among other things, that she “bucked party leaders” to support an expanded public health insurance program.
What it doesn't say: Schwarzenegger vetoed that bill last year.
Horton's mail also said she authored a bill to ensure the elderly and disabled continue receiving medical care in the program of their choice. That bill, her third attempt at exempting Alzheimer's disease programs from competitive bidding, was held in committee.
This slashing contest is of keen interest to party leaders in Sacramento.
For starters, political cash needs a place to be spent, and this year there are only a handful of competitive legislative races in California, thanks to gerrymandered districts.
Campaign finance reports show Sherard has raised about $1 million since the end of September. Horton has raised more than $400,000 in that same period, while independent-expenditure committees have spent nearly $500,000 on her behalf. Money continues to pour in daily.
Democrats have a seven percentage point registration advantage in the 78th District. Horton, a former Chula Vista mayor with deep ties to the South Bay political establishment, is well known to voters. Still, she won her two previous Assembly races by less than two percentage points.
The 78th is a Democratic priority, with Sherard's financial and political strategy directly overseen by the political staff of Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez.
Libertarian Geof Gibson is also on the ballot.
Democrats have several motivations in this contest. If Sherard wins on Nov. 7, it would boost membership of the Legislative Black Caucus to 10, a historic high. Democrats also want down-ballot wins to offset the sting of gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides' expected loss to Schwarzenegger.
“With the Democrats going down the tubes in the governor's race, nothing would give them more satisfaction than winning back a couple of Assembly seats,” said Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of California Target Book, a nonpartisan guide to state politics.
