Daniel Ortega ruled Nicaragua from 1979 to 1990. He may do so again very soon.
The leader of the Nicaraguan political party FSLN, better known as the Sandinistas, is no stranger to the spotlight – he went toe to toe for years with President Ronald Reagan or standing for president – he has done so in every election since being defeated in 1990 by Violeta Chamorro. Mostly he has been relegated to a distant second or worse. This year, however, the Nicaraguan historical dustbin seemingly has an escape hatch. But why is 2006 so different? The answer comes in three parts: Hugo, Herty and Ollie.
First off, and let's dispense with it quickly as it has become far too trite in the media, is the role and impact that President Hugo ChÁvez of Venezuela, or more specifically his oil, has had across the electoral terrain of Latin America. For several months, it appeared as though the Venezuelan's rhetoric and meddling in Nicaraguan politics was only hurting Ortega. But the well-timed delivery of 80,000 gallons of diesel to Nicaragua – a ceremony that Ortega did not miss, personally welcoming the delivery on the Nicaraguan coast – only weeks before the election and smack in the middle of a crippling energy crisis in the impoverished nation has indeed buoyed Ortega's party and his support. But Latin America's most talked about figure can only take partial credit for Ortega's rise in the polls.
Less known outside of Nicaragua's borders, but extremely important for the Nov. 5 election, was the sudden and unexpected death on July 2 of presidential candidate Herty Lewites of the political party MRS, or the Sandinista Renewal Movement. Lewites was the leader of the MRS, a dissident Sandinista movement that had peeled off several years ago in disgust with Ortega and his megalomaniacal leadership. While only polling around 15 percent at the time of his death, Lewites' wake and funeral were almost national holidays in Nicaragua and displayed both the diversity and level of support he had fostered – and underscored the dissatisfaction with the status quo embodied by Ortega. Having completed a competent term as mayor of Managua in 2005, and armed with a distinctive charisma, Lewites offered a legitimate option to those tired of Ortega but distrustful of other parties. It also bears noting that Lewites's 15 percent of support is the exact lead ascribed to Ortega by the most recent Zogby poll.
Adding to the significance of Lewites' death and the impact of his departure from the presidential race was the constitutional chicanery employed by Ortega in 2000 that saw the electoral laws rewritten to allow for victory in a presidential election with only 35 percent of the vote in the first round, if the closest finisher was at least 5 points behind. This change, implemented as part of a pact between Ortega and his main rival Arnoldo AlemÁn, in return for the latter's immunity from prosecution for his years as “kleptocrat in chief” of Nicaragua, was widely viewed as an important hurdle that Ortega needed cleared for a more successful run for president.
Yet Nicaragua's true “October Surprise” this year is a very familiar face from the country's turbulent recent history: Col. Oliver North. Simultaneously loved and hated for his embroilment in the country's civil war in the '80s, he is indisputably a household name. And when someone of such prominence pens an op-ed piece that unmistakably urges citizens to vote for a specific candidate – José Rizo of the Liberal party – it has the impact on the order of the postage stamp earthquake that long ago cost Nicaragua the trans-Isthmian canal. Indeed, North's Washington Times essay asking “Who lost Nicaragua?” coupled with his Oct. 23 visit to Managua, the timing of which would make another Oliver – Stone – twitch with conspiratorial glee, was akin to pouring ChÁvez's diesel on the fire and incited a significant outpouring of sympathy for the Ortega ticket just days before the election.
North could have answered his own essay by looking in the mirror, or by realizing that penning such a piece, traveling to Managua and making brash public statements while there, would greatly aid his old nemesis' return to power. So it is that one of Washington's longtime bogyman – one that is afforded far too much notoriety and power for aspiring to the pulpits of the hemisphere's second-poorest nation, a country that is not even a remote pawn in today's global geopolitical chess match – appears ready to ride back into power to the chords of John Lennon's “Give Peace a Chance.”
Martin is director of the Energy Program at UC San Diego's Institute of the Americas. He can be reached via e-mail at
jermartin@ucsd.edu
