|
Chargers (9-2) at Bills (5-6)
Kickoff: 10 a.m. | Caliente line: Chargers by 6 1/2 | Series: Chargers lead 19-9-2 | TV: Channel 8 (Gus Johnson, Steve Tasker) | Radio: KIOZ-FM (105.3) and in Spanish on XEXX-AM (1420)
|
|
1. NO CONTEST? With a mind-boggling 21 touchdowns in his past seven games (yes, that's an NFL record) and 24 this season, not to mention five straight 100-yard rushing games, LaDainian Tomlinson today faces a defense that allowed 395 rushing yards the past two weeks (with 16 runs of at least 10 yards). For the season, just two teams have allowed more yards per carry than Buffalo (4.8). Another 100-yard game would be Tomlinson's seventh of the year, tying the club record Don Woods set in 1974 and LT tied in 2002. Tomlinson also needs just 54 yards to join Eric Dickerson as the only players to start their careers with six straight 1,200-yard rushing seasons (Dickerson had seven).
2. LIGHTS ON AGAIN: The league leader in sacks before he was suspended for four games, Shawne Merriman has some catching up to do if he wants to finish the season No. 1. With 8.5 this season, he trails AFC leader (and teammate) Shaun Phillips by one and league leader Julius Peppers by 2.5. Not only did Merriman have two sacks against Buffalo last year, but the Bills allowed quarterback J.P. Losman to be sacked in each of his first 10 games this season (total of 32).
3. BOUNCE BACK: Philip Rivers completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes just twice in his first 10 games (Baltimore, Kansas City), and each time he came back the next week with a much better performance. Last week he was below 50 percent (14-of-31) for the first time since his freshman year in college, so what will happen today, especially if it's snowing or windy? Buffalo ranks in the middle of the league in pass defense, but the Bills haven't allowed many big plays, especially recently (no gain of more than 25 yards in the past four games).
4. GOING DEEP? Buffalo's passing game relies primarily on short and intermediate routes, but the Bills have taken some shots down the field the past couple weeks. Lee Evans caught a pair of 83-yard touchdown passes from Losman against Houston, and Roscoe Parrish caught a 30-yarder to set up the winning field goal last week. Will they try that again today? Teams have been able to throw underneath on the Chargers, and in recent weeks several opponents have been able to produce at least one big play. Having Merriman back should help limit the time Losman has to look for a deep receiver.
5. TRULY SPECIAL: The Bills have one of the best special teams coaches in the league in Bobby April, so it's not surprising they rank among the league leaders in several categories. Brian Moorman is on pace to become the first NFL punter to crack the 40-yard net barrier for a season (40.7). Parrish is the top punt returner, averaging 13.9 yards per return, and Terrence McGee led the league in kickoff returns last year (30.2) before “slumping” this season to No. 4 (26.5). The Bills also have above-average coverage units, something the Chargers can't say after last week. This is an area that could prove critical today; if the weather is poor, field position could be more important than ever.
Scouting Report
WHEN THE CHARGERS HAVE THE BALL: San Diego has been white-hot in the red zone recently, scoring TDs on 15 straight possessions to raise its season percentage to a league-high 70.5. Buffalo has allowed TDs on six of its past eight red-zone tries, and its season percentage of 63.6 ranks 29th. EDGE: Chargers
WHEN THE BILLS HAVE THE BALL: Look for the Bills to test San Diego's run defense, which has dropped to 18th in yards per carry allowed (4.1). Willis McGahee scored twice last week despite playing just three weeks after breaking one rib and cracking two others. Quarterback J.P. Losman has been terrible on third down, completing just 55 percent of his passes and throwing five interceptions for a 55.5 rating that ranks 30th (Philip Rivers is third at 96.8). EDGE: Chargers
SPECIAL TEAMS: As noted above, the Bills have no weaknesses here. The Chargers got a big lift from Antonio Cromartie's 91-yard kickoff return, and the rookie will be in that role again today. San Diego must play better on kickoff coverage. EDGE: Bills
INTANGIBLES: Buffalo has won three of its past four and is playing at home, but the Chargers have won five straight and welcome back their best defensive player. The Chargers were asked so many times this week about overlooking Buffalo that it's hard to believe that could happen. EDGE: Even
INJURY REPORT: San Diego will play its fourth straight game without DE Luis Castillo and its second straight without safety Marlon McCree and KR Michael Turner. McGahee was ill Friday and didn't practice, but he is expected to play.
Predictions
Nick Canepa, Union-Tribune columnist
Beware. This is a trap game. But the thinking is San Diego's Tim Sullivan/John L. Sullivan Defense will warm up to the cold day. Chargers 28, Bills 17
Tim Sullivan, Union-Tribune columnist
Shawne Merriman returns from his suspension refreshed, recharged and recommitted to crushing QBs. J.P. Losman is advised to brace himself. Chargers 24, Bills 14
Jerry Magee, Union-Tribune NFL writer
Football is different in Buffalo. Yes, it's the cold, but it's more than that. Mostly, it's the wind. Mind it, Philip Rivers. Chargers 24, Bills 22
Jim Trotter, Union-Tribune NFL writer
LT will get at least two TDs and Merriman will match that with two sacks as San Diego wins its sixth in a row. Chargers 27, Bills 17
Jerry Sullivan, Buffalo News
Bills' special teams and the weather – which will get nasty just in time for the game – will keep this one close. Chargers 17, Bills 13
Feedback / We'd like to hear what you have to say about tonight's Chargers-Bills game. Send us your comments:
Emailsports@uniontrib.com / Fax (619) 260-5078
Letters must be received by 7 p.m. Please keep your letter brief and include your full name and phone number for verification purposes. Letters submitted may be used in print or in digital form in any publication or service offered by the Union-Tribune Publishing Company.
