Here's an insider's advice for anyone who wants to try to accurately predict today's Grammy Award winners: Don't.
Conventional logic simply doesn't apply to the Grammys. The record industry's most prestigious and comprehensive annual awards fete was designed to salute “artistic excellence,” but more often reflects sales success, except when it doesn't.
With these caveats in mind, here are six predictions:
Record of the Year
“Irreplaceable,” Beyonce; “The Pretender,” Foo Fighters; “Umbrella,” Rihanna Featuring Jay-Z; “What Goes Around ... Comes Around,” Justin Timberlake; “Rehab,” Amy Winehouse.
Timberlake, the lone male nominee, will probably lose to Rhianna's elemental hit, although Winehouse's irony-drenched “Rehab” would be the hipper pick by far.
Will win: Rhianna. Should win: Winehouse.
Album of the Year
“Echoes, Silence, Patience & Grace,” Foo Fighters; “These Days,” Vince Gill; “River: The Joni Letters,” Herbie Hancock; “Graduation,” Kanye West; “Back to Black,” Amy Winehouse.
The third time should be the charm for hip-hop visionary West, whose has lost twice previously in this category. Country favorite Gill has 18 Grammy wins, but is a long shot here. Ditto the hard-rocking Foo Fighters and retro-soul singing train wreck Winehouse, who is more likely to win for record or song of the year. That leaves piano icon Hancock's all-star Joni Mitchell tribute, only the second jazz release to earn an Album of the Year nomination and a classy, if unlikely, contender.
Will win: West. Should win: West.
Best New Artist
Feist; Ledisi; Paramore; Taylor Swift; Amy Winehouse.
The controversy surrounding Winehouse's notorious drug and alcohol binges won't help her with conservative Grammy voters. The front-runner, then, is Canada's fetching Feist, even though her first solo album came out in 1999.
Will win: Feist. Should win: Winehouse.
Best Jazz
Instrumental Album
“Pilgrimage,” Michael Brecker; “Live at the Village Vanguard,” The Bill Charlap Trio; “Kids: Live at Dizzy's Club Coca-Cola,” Joe Lovano & Hank Jones; “Line by Line, John Patitucci; “Back East,” Joshua Redman.
All five nominees produced albums that verge on the sublime, with piano great Jones, 89, ranking among this year's oldest contenders in any Grammy category. But Brecker, the eclectic sax dynamo who died early last year of leukemia at 57, produced a stellar farewell, with strong support from Herbie Hancock, Pat Metheny, Jack DeJohnette and fellow nominee Patitucci.
Will win: Brecker. Should win: Brecker.
Best Traditional
Folk Album
“Try Me One More Time,” David Bromberg; “Let Us Now Praise Sleepy John,” Peter Case; “Banjo Talkin',” Cathy Fink; “Dirt Farmer,” Levon Helm; “Charlie Louvin,” Charlie Louvin.
All five nominees are worthy. But Helm, 67, the former singer and drummer in The Band, made the comeback of a lifetime, overcoming throat cancer to make a stirring solo album, his first in 25 years.
Will win: Helm. Should win: Helm.
Best Contemporary
World Music Album
“Ceu,” Ceu; “Gil Luminoso,” Gilberto Gil; “Momento,” Bebel Gilberto; “Djin Djin,” Angelique Kidjo; “An Ancient Muse,” Loreena McKennitt.
None of these albums are as exhilarating as “Aman Iman” by the nomadic Malian band Tinariwen, which wasn't nominated. But legendary singer-songwriter Gil, who for the past four years was Brazil's Minister of Culture, comes closest with his haunting acoustic reveries.
Will win: McKennitt. Should win: Gil.
