WASHINGTON – Global warming probably will mean more illegal immigration and humanitarian disasters, undermining shaky governments and possibly expanding the terrorism threat against the United States, intelligence agencies say.
“Logic suggests the conditions exacerbated (by climate change) would increase the pool of potential recruits for terrorism,” said Tom Fingar, deputy director of national intelligence for analysis.
Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and Central and Southeast Asia are most vulnerable to warming-related drought, flooding, extreme weather and hunger. The assessment warns of a global spillover from increased migration and water-related disputes, Fingar said in prepared remarks yesterday to a joint hearing of a special House committee on global warming and a House Intelligence subcommittee.
Climate change alone would not topple governments, he said. It could worsen problems such as poverty, disease, migration and hunger, creating conditions that could destabilize already vulnerable areas, Fingar said.
But he warned that efforts to reduce global warming by changing energy policies “may affect U.S. national security interests even more than the physical impacts of climate change itself.”
The assessment of global climate change through 2030 is one in a series of periodic intelligence reports that offer the consensus of top analysts at all 16 spy agencies on foreign policy, security and global economic issues. Congress requested the report last year. The assessment is classified as confidential.
It predicts that the United States and most of its allies will have the means to cope with climate change economically. Unspecified “regional partners” could face severe problems.
Africa is seen as among the most vulnerable regions. An expected increase in droughts there could cut agricultural yields of rain-dependent crops by up to half over the next 12 years.
Parts of Asia's food crops are vulnerable to droughts and floods, with rice and grain crops potentially facing up to a 10 percent decline by 2025. As many as 50 million additional people could face hunger by 2020.
Fingar's statement strikes a considerably less ominous tone than a report issued a year ago by the Center for Naval Analyses.
The center's report, by retired military leaders, drew a direct correlation between global warming and the conditions that lead failed states to become the breeding grounds for extremism and terrorism.
“Climate change will provide the conditions that will extend the war on terror,” said Adm. T. Joseph Lopez, who commanded U.S. and allied peacekeeping forces in Bosnia in 1996.
“Weakened and failing governments, with an already thin margin for survival, foster the conditions for internal conflicts, extremism and movement toward increased authoritarianism and radical ideologies,” the center's report said. “The U.S. will be drawn more frequently into these situations.”
Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, said the request for the intelligence agencies' report was “a dangerous diversion of intelligence assets.” Issa said the issue should be studied by climate scientists, not intelligence agencies.
