Eager to step out of the shadow cast by the just-concluded Democratic National Convention, Republicans have started arriving in St. Paul, Minn., for a convention they hope will regain the political momentum for John McCain while aggressively going on the attack against Barack Obama.
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As Republicans prepared to gather in St. Paul, Minn., workers such as Bruce Albrecht (left) finished setting up the Xcel Energy Center.
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They are doing so energized by the reaction inside the party to McCain's selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, a choice widely hailed by conservatives who previously viewed the Arizona senator with some distrust.
The convention is to begin tomorrow, but the meticulously planned event is subject to change if Hurricane Gustav starts growing into a calamity like Hurricane Katrina. Republicans were making contingency plans yesterday to alter the tone of their convention, worried that images of a lavish celebration would provide a jarring contrast to a looming disaster.
Still, the convention comes at a time of high hopes for Republicans, who enjoyed a good month as McCain closed the poll gap on Obama just before his convention in Denver.
“Two months ago, there was almost a pall over the party,” said Ron Kaufman, a member of the Republican National Committee from Massachusetts. “Today, there is truly an upbeat feeling that we can win this race. There is nothing like the scent of victory to unify the party and return the bounce to your step.”
There is “definitely an optimism here that wasn't here two months ago,” Kaufman said from St. Paul.
Similarly amazed by the turn in GOP fortunes is Rich Galen, a longtime Republican strategist now working for Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. “I think Republicans are actually in good shape, something I wouldn't have said in May or June or even in July,” Galen said. “I think Republicans are kind of up on their toes now. We see a clear path to victory.”
But even with this recent burst of optimism, Republicans concede that Obama, an Illinois senator, scored big with his address Thursday night accepting the Democratic nomination. They are painfully aware that the country is still in a sour mood because of the economy and overseas entanglements and itching for change after eight years of GOP control of the White House.
But other than the first night, the Republican convention's focus is oriented toward the next four years and not on the past eight. Each night has a theme – “Service” tomorrow, “Reform” on Tuesday, “Prosperity” on Wednesday and “Peace” on Thursday.
Tomorrow is largely a tribute to the current administration. Speakers include President Bush, first lady Laura Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and Democrat-turned-Independent Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is still scheduled to speak, but it is unclear whether he will attend amid a budget deadlock in Sacramento.
The focus shifts on Tuesday. Speakers include failed presidential candidates Rudy Giuliani of New York, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Fred Thompson of Tennessee. On Wednesday, Palin is the headliner, accompanied by vice presidential also-rans, most notably Mitt Romney. Cindy McCain also speaks that night.
Thursday, of course, belongs to the nominee, giving McCain the largest audience he is likely to get all year to lay out his vision.
Republicans clearly are eager to get past the opening night's focus on Bush, and cannot wait for him to give his speech and vacate the convention city for the privacy of Camp David.
“You've got to kiss off the first night,” said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the influential Rothenberg Political Report newsletter. “The first night is the obligatory tribute to Bush, which I'm sure they'd rather not do, but they don't have much choice.”
The GOP reluctance does not reflect unhappiness with the president. But it does reflect the realization that anytime McCain is connected with Bush, it plays into the Democratic strategy of portraying the Republican nominee as representing a third term for an unpopular president.
“Everybody understands the political realities,” veteran New Hampshire Republican strategist Tom Rath said. “But nobody is going to run away from him. They like him.”
Bush's speech “expresses gratitude,” said White House press secretary Dana Perino. “The president will thank his family, his administration and, most of all, the friends, supporters and volunteers in the convention hall who have supported him and the Republican agenda for these past eight years.”
Perino said Bush will devote much of his time to outlining the issues facing the next president and making the case that McCain is best qualified to succeed him. She also put great emphasis on what the president will not do in his speech. “It certainly will not attack Barack Obama,” she said.
Other speakers will not feel similarly constrained.
Speakers almost certainly will attack Obama on all four nights, said Galen, who expressed amazement that the Democrats showed such little appetite for tough talk at a Denver convention that he said was filled with “one beige speech after another.”
Galen added that when it comes to attacks, “we're good at it and we know how to do it.”
Rath said attacks on Obama are needed to point out his weaknesses.
“Obama is not a sacred cow. We have differences with Barack Obama,” he said. “There are a number of issues that have turned our way, and we should not be reticent about embracing them.”
On the positive side, McCain himself must shoulder the biggest burden at the convention in alleviating voter doubts about him.
“He needs to differentiate himself as an individual,” said Craig Smith, a White House aide to two presidents and now a professor at California State University Long Beach. “He has to show vigor. And I think a sense of humor will help.”
On all four nights there will be repeated citations of McCain's harrowing years spent as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. But Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said Republicans will have to be careful to offer more at the convention.
“They will be sorely tempted to make their convention a two-note samba – 'John McCain, war hero' and 'Barack Obama, inexperienced celebrity,' ” Sabato said. “I don't think that is enough. McCain has got to be able to project an agenda that is future-oriented and that really addresses the concerns that Americans have domestically, and not just in foreign policy.”
