NLCS | PHILLIES VS. DODGERS
Three reasons the Phillies will win
1. Nobody in the National League hit more homers than the Phillies, a big reason why only the Cubs scored more runs. Speaking of the Cubs, the Phillies are a better-suited team to face the Dodgers because four of their top five hitters are lefties or switch-hitters – important against the brutal-to-righties Dodgers pitching.
2. With all the hubbub over the Manny Ramirez trade, an important deal for the Phillies also is worth noting. Including the clincher against the Brewers, Joe Blanton has given up seven earned runs in his past four starts and fills what would've been a gaping hole in the Phillies' playoff rotation.
3. Philly swept the Dodgers in late August, outscoring L.A. 27-11 in four games. The three starters in that series who will go in the NLCS gave up a combined three runs in 20 innings to the Dodgers. Ramirez, if you're curious, was 2-for-14 in that series.
Three reasons the Dodgers will win
1. They get five full days' rest, which means Rafael Furcal and Jeff Kent can be as fresh and healthy as possible. That means the first round's most impressive team will be even better in the second round.
2. Don't they smell a little like this year's Rockies? Including the sweep of what was the NL's best team, the Dodgers have won 22 of their past 30 games. Five of their starting position players are 26 or younger, and Ramirez is going for a nine-figure payout this winter. If there's a magic carpet ride in these playoffs, the Dodgers are on it.
3. Their starting pitchers gave up three runs in 19 innings in sweeping the highest-scoring team in the NL. Philly's top five hitters are a lifetime .248 against the Dodgers' top three.
Bottom line: Both teams are hot. Along with the above-mentioned Dodgers' hot run, the Phillies have won 16 of 20. The Dodgers have the deeper starting pitching, the Phillies the deeper lineup, L.A. the best hitter (Ramirez) and Philly the best pitcher (Cole Hamels). There's something that feels right about the Dodgers, and we think it wears dreadlocks.
ALCS | RAYS VS. RED SOX
Three reasons the Rays will win
1. No fear. They fought the Yankees in spring training, the Red Sox in the regular season, and many of them are rocking ridiculous mohawks. They won in their final at-bat two nights in a row at Fenway Park after the Sox pulled to within a half-game in September. If the Rays lose, it won't be because they're overwhelmed by the moment.
2. Pitching and defense. Baseball people keep saying these are the two most important things to winning, and the Rays keep doing both as well as or better than anybody in baseball.
3. The Rays can small-ball up some runs – especially on turf – but they're not as married to manufacturing runs as, say, the Angels. Only four players in all of baseball have more homers the past two seasons than Carlos Pena. Evan Longoria looks an awful lot like The Next Big Thing, and the Rays finished fourth in homers and first in steals this year.
Three reasons the Red Sox will win
1. They've won seven of their past eight postseason series, beating teams that won an average of 97 games in the respective regular season. This is the new Evil Empire – at least until the revenue of the new Yankee Stadium kicks in and the Steinbrenners start signing $100 million setup men.
2. It's cute and all that the Rays aren't terrified, but it's only right to give Boston credit for the kind of resume and roster that are worthy of fear. This is baseball's best franchise, with interchangeable aces and a lineup deeper than an Advanced Philosophy lecture.
3. When the Rays have a ninth-inning lead, they go to Dan Wheeler or the unfortunately named Grant Balfour. When the Red Sox have a ninth-inning lead, they go to Jonathan Papelbon. Um . . . yeah.
Bottom line: “Better-known” should not be confused with “better.” The Red Sox received some nicely wrapped gifts in the division series, but they won't be so fortunate against the sound Rays. The defending champ Red Sox won't go easily, but with their injuries and the Rays' magic, we're sensing a nightmare World Series entrant for Fox executives.
– THE KANSAS CITY STAR
